1, 2010, pp. Centre for Research on Impact Evaluation (CRIE ... This involves counterfactual analysis, that is, "a comparison between what actually happened and what would have happened in the absence of the intervention." Impact evaluations seek to answer cause-and-effect questions. In other words, they look for the changes in outcome that are directly attributable to a program. Project Impact Evaluation Design - ADB Strengths and weaknesses of Counterfactual … State of the art counterfactual non-experimental methods have been applied to estimate the impact on employment creation, growth in sales, level of investment and changes in labour productivity and average payroll costs. COUNTERFACTUAL EVALUATION. CASE STUDY ASSESSING Counterfactual Impact Evaluation methods are applicable in the case of the Czech Operational Programme Human Resources and Employment (OP HRE), area of support 1.1 Adaptability . Bondonio and Greenbaum 2006; Bronzini and Di Blasio 2006, Adorno et al. Impact evaluation seeks to determine the longer term results that are generated by policy decisions, often through interventions, projects or programmes. Impact evaluations compare what happened with the MCC investment to what would have happened without it through the explicit definition and measurement of a counterfactual. This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. Figure. This document is a step-by-step guide for Managing Authorities and other evaluators of ESF interventions to help them build capacity on the use of administrative data for counterfactual impact evaluations. Impact evaluation using comparison groups is an appropriate tool to Pilot and feasibility study on the sustainability and effectiveness of results for European Social Fund participants using Counterfactual impact evaluations Final Report By Marco Pompili Impact Evaluation in Development Institutions: A Look at the African Development Bank Adopting counterfactual methods. In contrast to outcome monitoring, which examines whether targets have been achieved, impact evaluation is structured to answer the question: how Cohesion Policy in Italy. • Impact evaluation looks at the impact of an intervention on final welfare outcomes, rather than at project outputs or at the project implementation process (World Bank). … The Counterfactual Evaluation Archive (CEA) is an online database, developed by the Centre for Research on Impact Evaluation of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, which collects published articles and working papers using counterfactual impact evaluation (CIE) to assess the impact of active labour market policies (ALMPs). This course equips participants with skills in setting up and implementing results based monitoring and evaluation systems including M&E data management, analysis and reporting. The Logic of Counterfactual Impact Evaluation. Six Month Impact Evaluation of Prevention and Relationship Education Program’s (PREP’s) Within Our Reach in Orlando, Florida Final Impact Evaluation Report for University of Central Florida December 21, 2020 Prepared by . Chapter 4. • According to the World Bank oAssess changes in the well-being of individuals, households, communities or firms that can be attributed to a particular project, program or policy oProvides feedback to help improve the design of programs and policies Question: Access changes in what? The keynote speakers are Jochen Kluve (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin), and Steve Pischke (London School of Economics). In September 2019, IEU and the Ministry of Environment of Rwanda signed a MoU to disseminate the use of main tools and methodologies for the application of the Learning-Oriented Real-Time Learning Assessment (LORTA) which consists of theory … IE involves COUNTERFACTUAL analysis (CAUSAL mechanism), that is, acomparisonbetweenwhatactuallyhappened andwhatwouldhavehappenedintheabsenceoftheintervention. The main research question is whether the Counterfactual Impact Evaluation methods are applicable in the case of OP HRE (Operational program Human Resources and Employment), area of support 1.1 in the Czech … Downloadable! Front. In general, impact evaluations can be classified into two approaches: quantitative approach and qualitative approach. Logically Constructed Counterfactual. The proper analysis of impact requires a counterfactual of what those outcomes would have been in the absence of the intervention.1 Res. The Society for Conservation Biology’s Impact Evaluation Working Group (SCB IEWG) advances biodiversity conservation efforts across the globe by working towards the adoption of counterfactual approaches to understanding the social and ecological impacts of conservation interventions. Impact evaluation is the counterfactual analysis of the impact of an intervention on final welfare outcomes. Here, we report on a systematic review to evaluate whether estimates about the effectiveness of protected area differ between traditional and counterfactual impact evaluation methods. This course is designed to equip the participants with adequate skills to conduct rigorous impact evaluations for their interventions. 3. Use of Genetic and Coarsened Exact matching … 28–35 REFEREED ARTICLE Additionality: a useful way to construct the counterfactual qualitatively? Improve evaluation designs to answer policy-relevant questions: quality impact evaluations embed the counterfactual analysis of attribution in a broader analysis of the causal chain, allowing an understanding of why interventions work, or not, and yielding policy relevant messages for better design and implementation. In contrast, impact evaluation contrasts changes in an indicator to some estimate of the counterfactual change in the indicator, the change that would have occurred without pro-gram. Counterfactual thinking and impact evaluation in environmental policy. The course is completed once you fulfill the course requirements and pass the assignments and oral exam. This tutorial summarizes and unifies the emerging body of methods on counterfactual evaluation and learning. Impact evaluations attempt to attribute change to a specific programme or policy and establish what would have happened without the intervention (the counterfactual) by using scientific, sometimes experimental, methodologies such as randomised control trials or … Impacts may be positive or negative, intended or unintended, direct or indirect. University of South Carolina Counterfactual impact evaluation of EU funded enterprise support in Portugal: By Ricardo Mamede; ISCTE- IUL and Dinâmia'CET: presented by: Ricardo Mamede, ISCTE- IUL and Dinâmia'CET . The comparison group represents the “counterfactual” and helps answer the question of what would have happened to energy usage in the treatment group in the absence of an intervention. Nuno Duarte, Andrea Geraci, Silvia Granato, Gianluca Mazzarella, Maria João Mortágua 2020. What is impact evaluation? Hidden Biases in Environmental Program Evaluation Carrying out such analysis requires analysis of data collected at the appropriate time and places, often using statistical methods which may strike many as It It offers scholars as well as practitioners from public administrations, consultancy firms and nongovernmental organizations insights into counterfactual impact evaluation methods and the potential of data-based policy and program evaluation. European Commission uses the counterfactual analysis somewhat parsimoniously in its evaluation and ex-ante policy impact assessment guidelines, which still rely on simple impact indicators (Martini, 2008) and on baseline scenarios that, in most cases, are not defined according to the counterfactual framework. objective of this study is to analyze the impact of EU RD programmes on rural regions. There are also additional questions to the main question: what requirements have to be met? These counterfactual techniques provide a wellfounded way to evaluate and optimize online metrics by exploiting logs of past user interactions. vi. It can also be used by other institutions involved in implementing and … “impact evaluation” in different ways. In its simplest form, counterfactual impact evaluation (CIE) is a method of comparison which involves comparing the outcomes of interest of those having benefitted from a policy or programme (the “treated group”) with those of a group similar in all respects to the treatment group (the “comparison/control group”), the only difference being that the … A counterfactual is simply what would have happened without a given intervention. Impact evaluation is an assessment of how the intervention being evaluated affects outcomes, whether these effects are intended or unintended. The proper analysis of impact requires a counterfactual of what those outcomes would have been in the absence of the intervention.1 The impact of a treatment is the difference that it makes to intended (or unintended) outcomes, relative to a counterfactual condition (Ferraro & Hanauer, 2015; Pressey, Visconti, & Ferraro, 2015). As our main result, we found that traditional methods tended to overestimate the impact of PAs in avoiding deforestation when compared with counterfactual methods. Impact evaluations for ERDF/ESF operations are likely to adopt either experimental type counterfactual impact or theory-based approaches. Introduction to counterfactual evaluation approaches and how to use them in practice Stephen Morris, Professor of Evaluation, PERU, Manchester Metropolitan University: 09.30: Counterfactual approaches to causation Early on in the process of designing an evaluation you will need to consider how a counterfactualwill be identified and estimated. Counterfactual thinking and impact evaluation in environmental policy. Abstract One concern about impact evaluation is whether a program has made a difference (Owen 2006). What is a Counterfactual? To fill in the gap, we follow the concept of counterfactual learning (CL) van2019interpretable, where the informative EC contents can be identified as potential decision-influencing factors by asking the counterfactual: how would the outcome change if the selected texts were modified?Such CL enables us to leverage abundant cross-domain texts (e.g., news … Most counterfactual methods on the other hand focus on the short-term, which is likely to capture only a sub-set of programme results. Even though RCT is the benchmark impact evaluation strategy because you are in control of how the counterfactual group is chosen (and it’s chosen in the best statistical way possible), there’s still the possibility that your randomization went horribly awry (or that the randomization wasn’t actually implemented, i.e. Randomized Selection Methods 49. Two of the most popular methods to evaluate the effects of such policy interventions or events are the synthetic control method of Abadie et al. The choice of methods and designs for impact evaluation of policies and Linked In. The aim of the conference is to discuss developments in counterfactual methods applied to the Impact Evaluation of policy interventions, with a focus on employment, social and education policies. 4. • Counterfactual thinking should cover all phases of the evaluation process: structuring, observing, analysing and judging • Selection of indicators is … •The counterfactual represents how programme participants would have performed in the absence of the program •Problem: Counterfactual cannot be observed •Solution: We need to “mimic” or construct the counterfactual Different impact evaluation methodologies differ in how they construct the counterfactual Counterfactual OUTLINE OF PRINCIPLES OF IMPACT EVALUATION PART I KEY CONCEPTS Definition Impact evaluation is an assessment of how the intervention being evaluated affects outcomes, whether these effects are intended or unintended. USAID Definition of Impact Evaluation - Review • Impact Evaluations are based on models of cause and effect … – Requires a causal theory of change • E.g. Identify and strengthen processes to ensure that evidence is used in policy: studies are not … Impact Evaluation in Practice. Impacts may be positive or negative, intended or unintended, direct or indirect. In contrast to members of the treatment group, members of the comparison group have not been exposed to the intervention we want to evaluate. MIGUEL ANGEL LUQUE … CHALLENGES AND OPTIONS FOR COUNTERFACTUAL IMPACT EVALUATION (CIE). Counterfactual impact evaluation of public funding of innovation, investment and R&D Publication metadata This report uses data from Efige and from Bureau Van Dijk’s Amadeus and Orbis to estimate the effect of funding from the EU and national programmes on firms’ employment, sales, added value, productivity and innovativeness. Impact evaluation. The online course “Impact Evaluation of Policies and Programs Estimation and Analysis of Causal Impacts” is designed as follow up of this course and does offer exercises in how to do an econometric impact evaluation. The basic organizing principle of quantitative impact evaluation is the use of an explicit counterfactual analysis. More specifically, quantitative impact evaluation isolates the … results framework, logical framework, development hypothesis • …and require a credible and rigorously defined counterfactualto control for factors other than the What exactly is impact evaluation using a counterfactual? Evaluation Journal of Australasia, Vol. Keywords: national bibliometric evaluation, China, dynamic publication universe, counterfactual analysis, bibliometric impact. The first type of impact evaluation I have outlined above, the one based on program theory, involves examining the assumptions underlying the causal chain from inputs to results and impact. Impact evaluations are based on models of cause and effect and require a credible and rigorously defined counterfactual to control for factors other than the intervention that might account for the observed change.” • Counterfactual: the hypothetical outcome that would have prevailed had there been no intervention. Search for more papers by this author. Counterfactual is another big challenge in impact evaluation – to identify what would have happened in the community in the absence of the intervention. The method of counterfactual impact evaluation allows to identify which part of the observed actual improvement (e.g. New Directions for Evaluation 2009; 122: 75–84. The latter cases usually are called performance evaluation. Aggregated effects of a given RD programme at regional levels are estimated using the Rural Development Index (RDI) a proxy describing the overall quality of life in individual rural areas. However, criticism can equally be … Impact evaluation seeks to determine the longer term results that are generated by policy decisions, often through interventions, projects or programmes.
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